초록 열기/닫기 버튼
본 연구에서는 1965년부터 2018년까지 농업가뭄피해가 가장 많이 발생한 경상남도를 대상으로 재해예측을 위한 가뭄지수를설정하고자 한다. 가뭄지수는 SPI를 대상으로 지속기간(3, 6, 9, 12개월)에 대하여 분석하였으며 농업가뭄이 발생한 지속기간의피해특성을 산정하였다. 경상남도의 농업가뭄 피해기간에 대한 지속시간별 SPI는 최소 –2.0 이하, 최대 –1.0 이상으로 약한가뭄과보통가뭄이 분석되었다. 그러나 장마기간의 호우영향으로 SPI12는 평균 –1.06이며 농업가뭄의 피해영향은 미미하였다. 농업가뭄의 피해기간과 지속기간별 SPI의 상관관계는 높은 것으로 분석되었으나 피해발생을 판단하기에는 지속기간별 SPI의 차이가크지 않다. 본 연구에서는 농업가뭄의 재해예측을 위한 기준을 과거 농업가뭄의 피해발생기간에 지속기간별 SPI의 최소가뭄지수를 연도별 대표 가뭄지수로 산정하였다. 재해예측을 위한 가뭄지수의 기준은 과거 피해가 발생한 연도의 지속기간별SPI의 평균인 –1.64로 설정하였다.
This study aims to establish a drought index for disaster prediction in Gyeongsangnam-do, where the most agricultural drought damage occurred from 1965 to 2018. The drought index was analyzed for each duration (3, 6, 9, 12 months) targeting the SPI. Damage characteristics of the duration of agricultural drought were calculated. SPI for each duration of agricultural drought damage period in Gyeongsangnam-do was at least -2.0 or less, and the maximum was -1.0 or more, and weak and moderate drought were analyzed. However, due to the heavy rain effect during the rainy season, the average SPI12 was -1.06, and the impact of agricultural drought was negligible. It was analyzed that the correlation between the damage period of agricultural drought and the SPI by duration was high. However, there is not much difference in SPI for each duration to determine the occurrence of damage. In this study, the criterion for disaster prediction of agricultural drought was calculated as representative drought index by year as the minimum drought index of SPI for each duration of damage occurrence period of past agricultural drought. The Standard of drought index for disaster prediction was set to -1.64, the average of the SPI for each duration of year in which damage occurred in the past.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
Agricultural Drought, SPI Index, Disaster Prediction, Damage Characteristic
